The UK vote in the recent Euro agreement

[bambam]

The world according to Schlack:

"The British are a bunch of self-deluding unhelpful anti-social cnuts because they didn't sign the recent European agreement."

OK the quote isn't 100% accurate and I paraphrased, but that's one view.

Cameron at home has got political pressure from cnuts like me who argue "yes, to European free trade, yes to collaborative policing and yes to a common defence policy, and why the fuck would we want to cede any sovereignty of the UK to anybody outside our borders? Does that really mean we'd all be speaking Chinese in 50 years?". I struggle to understand how we've got in a situation that some European law means we can't drop an unwanted immigrant out of a helicopter over the North Sea as if that's something to do with Brussels.

I get why senior politicians are 1000% enthusastic about a large body politic at the European level, because for a lot of them it's a way of moving their personal income from the hundreds of thousands to the millions and extending their career a decade beyond their political survival in the UK, but I don't get why any voter would think it's a good thing.

But maybe I'm one of those UK cnuts who just doesn't get the big picture.

Bambam

[Schlack]

The world according to Schlack:

"The British are a bunch of self-deluding unhelpful anti-social cnuts because they didn't sign the recent European agreement."

OK the quote isn't 100% accurate and I paraphrased, but that's one view.

What I actually said was if the Euro goes down the Pound goes down as everyones debts and financial systems are so inter-related. The english channel wont save you.

Monetary Union without fiscal union facilitates money flows such as the credit gluts that fed the Irish property bubble/hysteria (and spains too) without the requisite means of compensating through co-ordinated policy/action.

How best to achieve that, I dont kow, but I am reasonably sure that any one of the old european powers cannot stand alone and compete in the modern Globalised world and that futher seperation will compound this current depression, leaving the sandwich with far less bread and far more shit.


Edit:

Oh and if you feel so strongly about johnny foreigner exerting power over a country, get the fuck out of Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

[bambam]

I should admit my quote from Schlack is total bollocks made up by me.

I might be deluded but I thought NI, Wales or Scotland are free to have a referendum and cede from the UK. If England actually got a chance to vote on it that'd be interesting but would never happen (and that would be Cameron's House of Lords slot right out the window).

I'm sure if the EU hits the financial buffers, it will be worse for the UK than most other countries, but tighter fiscal union (and hence political union) is going to make it worse not better.

[LuckyCombatPotato]

Isn't it about a European watch dog ? So it would kinda prevent the economic failure of a country ?
Originally Cameron would of accept it at one condition : not including London in the treaty, so the city cannot be economically monitored (i am not saying controlled) by Europe.

[dacanadianbomb]

"why the fuck would we want to cede any sovereignty of the UK to anybody outside our borders"
This is not how EU law works in reality.
Leave London out of it? One of the financial centers that is partly responsible for the current economic situation. When it was bailout time all of them were all for bail outs and regulation, and now that their profits are going up, they suddenly fear over regulation.Bunch of cunts.

[Schlack]

By the way, for those of you that think that Britain is any better shape

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/psssst-fr ... 0-debt-gdp

UK's Debt To GDP 950%, the bulk of it in the financial services area..... you know all those dodgy investment vehicles and derivative trading ponzi schemes......

[bambam]

Interesting stuff Schlack. I totally accept if the Euro countries have some kind of group collapse the finance industry is going to get kicked and London will get hurt more than Dusseldorf, taking the UK with it.

But as London is far-and-away the largest global financial centre, to list 'Financial Debt' as if it is somehow on par in a 'Government Debt to GDP' ratio is great for drama in the blogosphere but not a meaningful association. If Paris, Frankfurt or Dublin had managed to capture a larger share of global finance, then their 'Financial Debt' would reflect that.

Investment Banking transactions have an inherent concept of 'credit risk' (i.e. the concept your counterparty could go bust) and *every* transaction with City of London-based banks will include a weighting for this factor. There is no way in hell the UK government expects to or is expected to bail out the predominantly foreign-owned banks based in London (As Ireland wouldn't bail out Bank of America just because it got blown up by a toxic global deal from the Dublin office).

Investment Banking may be evil (I worked in it for 25 years), and Goldman Sachs may be a vampire squid on the face of humanity, but the casino element is really a distraction compared to the level of borrowing by both governments and individuals. The banking industry may be culpable in finding ways to help governments and individuals borrow an indefinite amount.

UK government debt is quoted at ~80% of GPD, same as France, less than quite a few other European countries. BUT public sector pension liabilities do not count as govt debt and dwarf this amount, and the UK has enthusiastically used "Private Finance Initiatives" and "Public Private Partnerships" to fund every major public project for the past decade and a half, again these don't count as government debt (but it used to). So an important question is which Euro countries have the most of this crap hidden behind the figures. Maybe that's the UK but talking about "Financial Debt" doesn't address this.

The Portugese, Spanish and Italians want to borrow from the ECB, but the ECB charter says it is not supposed to treat the EU as a debt-union. So those countries are issuing bonds but forcing their own local banks to buy significant tranches of their bond issues. Then those banks *can* borrow from the ECB because the ECB charter says that government debt from EU countries can be used as collateral in a loan to a bank. So with no democratic input of any kind, the ECB has fundamentally shifted its remit. The austerity measures required Euro countries to meet requirements for capital ratios (against which they borrow). The Spanish adjusted their ratio by transferring their massive but under-funded Post Office pension plan from the Post Office to the national government. Even though they still have the same black hole in pension liabilities as before, this transfer of the pension assets was accepted as an increase in the capital base of Spain. This year both Spain and Italy are looking to pull the same trick with the pension funds of their banks.

So yeah the UK will be in the same crapper as the Euro-zone if things go tits-up, but creating a debt-union out of the Eurozone is a bit scary.

[Schlack]

Interesting stuff Schlack. I totally accept if the Euro countries have some kind of group collapse the finance industry is going to get kicked and London will get hurt more than Dusseldorf, taking the UK with it.

But as London is far-and-away the largest global financial centre, to list 'Financial Debt' as if it is somehow on par in a 'Government Debt to GDP' ratio is great for drama in the blogosphere but not a meaningful association. If Paris, Frankfurt or Dublin had managed to capture a larger share of global finance, then their 'Financial Debt' would reflect that.

My post was aimed at Mr Ion's "I'm allright jack" attitude, when clearly this is not the case with the amounts are so huge and the forthcoming collapse so certain.

Irelands ratio is somewhere in the region of 1300% when financials are taken into account. The only reason why the UK isnt under debt attack from th speculators is that there are currently easier targets.

The point being that it is Mr and Mrs Taxpayer who, for some reason that I still havent really figured out, will be saddled with the pain of bailing these fuckers out and shoring up the holes, at least attempting to hold off complete collapse. Too big to fail i beleive was the term used in the US.

debt-union out of the Eurozone is a bit scary

Certainly is, but I think the debt difficulties are beyond the resources of a single nation state, perhaps beyond the resources of the combined EU but I am not aware of any alternative other than letting the world burn. Perhaps it should.

That said, if the EU does manaage to muddle through and have structures capable of defending against speculator assaults, the UK, on the outside may well represent the easier and jucier target.

[LuckyCombatPotato]

Hey, fuck the financial debt.

Let's get our industries back in Europe.
More industries, less unemployment, less states debt, more taxes for the government (that you pay when you work), etc.

Let's buy the cars from Germany, the Wine from France, The Beers from Ireland, The Queen's underwears from the Uk, the chips from Belgium.

French president now says to buy more products "Made in Europe".
But we would not have much choice would we ?



Amen.

[Tempest]

3 smallish issues:

1) Germany and The Netherlands net surplus within it's balance of trade (inflating the EURO) do not fit well with the needs of the rest of Europe (low value currency to punish import users and encourage domestic consumption)

2) Age demographics within Germany (similar to Japan) combined with the high debt of Germany as an entire nation (still paying of East Germany) leads to concerns of an ability to pay back debt already issued over a 20 year period as well as issues around the level of lending that the German Landesbanks have made to "Euro" debt nations (Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Greece)

3) London is deeply in debt through it's banks and like German banks needs time to have a sufficent "buffer" to obsorb loses.

[Sayril]

We sweeds are lucky, we got our own little part of the world, which everybody just want to ignore!

Love it!

[Gavac220]

Let's buy the cars from Germany

At last some sense! I know this would certainly help my personal debt crisis, and according to LuckyCombatPotato, buying VW's will once again lead to a combined Europe (Ah the master plan never actually ended muhaha ). They plan/THEY WILL BE to be the biggest car maker in the world in the next few years.

Well VW certainly ain't skint! Just sent me to Alicante, in the resort of Villiantana! Free booze, night clubs and amazing food. Great resort with a Golf course designed by Jack Nicklaus. Here ya go:- http://www.villaitana.com/en/



The UK needs a new manufacturing and exports base, to pull it truly out of the current finance based industry hole it has dug. Military exports are all well and good, but we need solid investment in the private sectors, and government incentives to start/re-light the export markets so we can trade with Asia, Russia and other new world economies. We are bound to Europe in many, many ways whether people like it or not, and we will suffer and prosper side by side.

[Schlack]

The UK needs a new manufacturing and exports base.

And how exactly to compete against Chinese and Indians working for pennies to compared to uk worker's pounds?

Until there is some kind of wage parity, most manufacturing is headed east. Only jobs left will be those selling or distributing shit to other consumer units.

The mine aint coming back.

(slightly exaggerated for effect)

[Gavac220]

Create new markets, with the emphasis on quality and low volumes. Make buying a British engineered/designed item worth the extra. Make Britain the 'brand'. The Germans certainly manage to pull this off in the current global markets. Lotus are currently doing a fantastic job of schmoozing the American, European and Eastern markets using the 'British engineering and Historic' elements. Yes they are owned by Proton, but the tools for marketing are inherently British.

It can be done with support, and desire. Both are lacking in British industries of late. There needs to be a new focus in education, where it all starts. Branch out and nurture entrepreneurialism, design and engineering. Promote the export of skilled workers..... Hmmm. Promote the export of all the lazy ass state leeches may be a better plan?

DEFEND OUR BRITISH FISHING GROUNDS and quotas.

Spend Billions less on Submarines. Defence we need on a global scale, yes. I ask do we need the current under sea capabilities though? Not at this point. Sort the economy out over the next 25 years, then re-invest if global relations fluctuate.

My own suggestion? Legalize drugs, and create a booming tourist industry!

P.s the coal industry is booming across the world mate. If we get carbon capture and storage (CCS) of the ground, you could see a resurgence in the UK. Deposits are now estimated to be far higher than ever found in the past, and could prove a short term boost to the economy. See the Telegraph's report http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/5966 ... -coal.html * Who knows for sure, but mines may be coming back

[ionwg]

Schlack Chill !

the dice has been rolled , lets see what happens.